Brexit Betting – Will We Stay Or Will We Go?
April 26, 2019
Brexit. What the hell? We said we were leaving on the 29th of March, but here we all are, still part of the European Union. Now it’s been moved to Halloween, meaning my idea of going out dressed as Theresa May now has some topical relevance. Of course, this date isn’t set in stone because that would be far too convenient for everybody involved.
It’s more of a guideline than a deadline, like when the teacher says you might go home early. You know they’re lying, but you’re willing to believe it because you want the whole thing to be over.
What Is Going On?
This brings us back to Brexit. I think the vast majority of the country now agrees that this has gone on far too long. There is also a general consensus that those tasked with carrying out Brexit have absolutely screwed it up. However, exactly who is culpable changes depending on who you ask.
Some think we’ve been betrayed by a hidden regime of Remainers controlling Brexit from the shadows, guzzling on avocado flavoured champagne in vegan cafes. Or it’s the Brexiteers, acolytes of the Daily Mail, Nigel Farage and the Night King, who have a stranglehold on Parliament and the BBC. Alright, lads, you can have the House of Commons, but stay away from Peaky Blinders!
So, three years down the line and we’re still not really sure what Brexit is going to look like. While this uncertainty probably isn’t great for Britain’s future, it does mean that are some tasty opportunities to be had in the Brexit betting odds. There are three main ways Brexit could pan out, so let’s have a look at them now.
No Deal – 11/2 with Betfair
There was a point in time when these words were the political equivalent of Macbeth; say them out loud and only tragedy can follow. The picture painted of No Deal by all those annoying ‘experts’ is one akin to the Four Horsemen; Death, Famine, War and Conquest. Now, even if the country doesn’t descend into a biblical cataclysm, there are some legitimate concerns to be had over a No Deal Brexit.
Leaving without a deal would mean no 21-month transitional period for Britain, which in turn would put basically every institution in the country in a spot of bother. Any changes that occurred as a result of Brexit would have to be immediately dealt with by businesses and public bodies. World Trade Organisation rules would be implemented, which could see prices rise in imported goods and organisations move their operations from the country. To summarise, it wouldn’t be great.
Without a doubt, the biggest issue brought about by No Deal would be that of the Northern Irish Border. If Britain were to leave without a deal, the border between Northern Ireland and The Republic would provide a point of entry into the UK for EU citizens and vice versa. Having a physical border is out of the question, but at the same time, an open Irish border would pose a significant problem for the government.
So, there’s plenty to worry about with No Deal, but much of it is hypothetical. While there are many indications that it could spell doom for the UK, there is no guarantee of this and for many, the risk is worth the reward of leaving Europe. Whatever you think, there is no doubt that this option is the most unpredictable of the three and there’s something horrifically thrilling about that.
Deal – 1/7 with Betfred
In a fashion that has become typical of anything associated with Brexit, the one option that could end up pleasing everyone is now looking the most unlikely. Despite having years to negotiate anything resembling a half-decent deal, May and her government still can’t agree on fundamentals of such an agreement. In fact, the Prime Minister’s position is looking as tenuous as ever, with many of her own MPs demanding she step down. However, she did manage to whip up a proposal for parliament, one she hoped would finally bring some stability for the whole process.
Of course, she was entirely wrong. In fact, the deal was immediately rejected by peers and opposition alike. She then doubled down and went on the offensive, making impassioned speeches on how this deal was the only way Brexit could be delivered properly. The vote was held and again, her deal lost. Realising that the deal itself wouldn’t be enough, she made the ultimate sacrifice and vowed to step down if her deal was voted through.
The problem was that the only thing parliament hated more than the wheat field runner herself was her deal. It was voted down a third time. Speaker of the House and top-notch meme material John Bercow then dealt another blow to the Prime Minister. He ruled that the deal could not be presented to Parliament again without significant changes, effectively employing the ‘three strikes and you’re out’ rule on a legislative level.
Getting Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May to compromise on anything seems about as likely Chris Grayling successfully organising ships for Brexit, or anything else for that matter. But that is exactly what needs to happen if there is to be any chance of a deal. Early on in April, three years after the fateful vote, the prime minister finally opened Brexit talks with Labour It might have been at the eleventh hour, but there was real hope a compromise would be reached.
Predictably, this hasn’t happened. The reported reasons for this essentially amount to the old playground art of blaming the other person. Both sides have claimed the other has held up talks by refusing to budge on unrealistic expectations and now the chance of landing a deal seems further away than ever. It seems the extremes are the only options left.
Cancel Brexit – 11/5 with Unibet
The cop-out option, we reset the referendum and pretend all this never happened. Doesn’t that sound nice? All the bickering and political point scoring stops and we can go back to debating the real issues, like how one should eat a bacon sandwich. Alright, maybe British politics has been a downward spiral since before Brexit, but things were never this bad right? When you feel nostalgic for the days of the Cameron/Clegg coalition, you know things have gone awry.
There isn’t much to say about that would happen in this scenario, given that we’ve been living it for the past forty-five years. Just cast your mind back a few years and that’s basically what life will look like if Brexit gets cancelled. We would remain a member of the EU, with all the pros and cons that come with that. However, I’m not sure this is a likely scenario as there are as many people against it as there are in favour. If this were to happen, there would plenty of people not best pleased.
While Brexit has occupied the vast majority of legislative discourse over the past few years, it’s also had a massive effect on the wider political landscape. This has opened up a different, but not entirely unrelated, market in the form of betting odds for the next Prime Minister. Theresa’s tumultuous time in charge has pretty much ensured she won’t be in Number 10 by the time this Brexit malarkey has finished.
This leaves a number of opportunities in the next Prime Minister betting odds, and not just with the traditional options either. The newly formed Independent Group/Change UK/Whatever They Want To Be Called Now might provide a shock new government at some point. Built upon pro-EU foundations, they hope to capitalise on the growing absence of a real centre party for those tired of partisan politics. However, not even this new coalition of idealists could escape the inevitable farce that British politics has become.
Mere hours after the party was officially unveiled, after all the talk of being a truly progressive force in British politics, they were immediately embroiled in scandal. One of the biggest talking points of the group was their allegations of systemic racism in both of Britain’s major parties and how they were founded partly as a response to this. This made Angela Smith’s decision to refer to minorities as being of a ‘funny tinge’ on live television even worse than it was and proved a major blow before Chuka Umunna and co even got properly started.
Outside of the new players, good old Labour are apparently doing everything they can to avoid power. Normally, you would think them the favourites since they’re the opposition to what is perhaps the worst government ever seen in British politics. However, even when Labour are effectively shown an open net, yards away from goal, they still somehow manage to balls it up. Despite the grassroots support Corbyn has rallied since becoming leader, there are still plenty of people who strongly oppose any chance of his government.
Then there are the remaining Conservatives, who will need a new face to breathe life into the party after the May years. Luckily, they’ve got a wealth of talent to pick from, with the likes of Michael ‘tired of experts’ Gove and Dominic ‘didn’t realise the Dover-Calais border was important’ Raab. It’s incredible that there’s a number of even more incompetent individuals on the back benches than the ones we’ve already got.
Predictions for Brexit Betting Odds
Despite the fact we’ve already past the original deadline for Brexit, it feels like things are just getting started. Just this week we saw the return of ex-UKIP leader and Toad of Toad Hall lookalike Nigel Farage to mainstream politics as the head of the newly formed Brexit party. You have to admire the sheer audacity of Farage; he essentially organised Brexit, left before the work implementing it began and has now returned decrying those in charge when it inevitably went south. He’s also added to his allies, with Ann Widdecombe joining the Brexit party ranks. The ex-conservative, famous for dancing terribly on the Strictly and voting against human rights, is hoping her presence will help ensure Brexit does indeed go ahead.
Personally, I feel we need a Robert Baratheon style rebellion a la Game of Thrones. To be honest, it feels like there is a large portion of the country ready for a revolt, so seeing dragons rain fire over the Houses of Parliament wouldn’t be too surprising.
And at this point, I’m not sure anything could surprise me when it comes to Brexit, which is why it’s so difficult to call which way it’s going to go. Looking at everything that’s happened though, at the risk of sounding like Noel Edmonds, it’s deal or no deal for me. Realistically, I feel that we’re too far gone to cancel Brexit at this point.
Find all your Brexit betting odds and Next Prime Minister betting odds
Cyrus has been writing about sports and many other topics for major publications over the past five years. Now working in digital marketing, he spends his days arguing over football and dreaming of his beloved Manchester City winning the champions league.