The Best Brexit Bets For You And The Family
February 28, 2019
Ah Brexit, what a word right? When it first appeared in the mainstream dialect, it sounded like a terrible bran-based breakfast bar. Now though, it’s the buzz term on everyone’s lips, but nobody can quite agree on what it means. To some, it signals a new golden age of sovereignty for the UK, with Boris Johnson leading the charge against Europe, surfing across the channel on his shiny, blue passport. To others it’s the apocalypse; all food will perish, Britain will have to revert back to coal and steam engines, and the resurrected corpse of Enoch Powell will usher in an age of xenophobic darkness.
The reality is no one knows what is going on, especially the government, who have spent the past two years treating Brexit like that student loan payment they keep meaning to sort out. The bad news is that this uncertainty could lead to job losses, a drastic decrease in the average quality of life and maybe even another recession.
But fear not! Regardless of whether you think Brexit is a ripe opportunity or a morbid nightmare, it’s making for some tasty betting opportunities. With that in mind, we’re going to have a look at some of the possible Brexit betting scenarios, how likely they are to happen, and what they could mean for the country’s economic and political future.
No Deal (Cue Dramatic Music)
The dreaded no deal. If Britain were to leave like this, it wouldn’t be dissimilar to somebody jumping off an aeroplane, purposefully forging any form of parachute and nose-diving head first into a pool of piranhas. If I sound dramatic, it’s only because I can’t believe this might actually happen.
Now all this means is that, when the big day finally does come around, we tear up every treaty that we have with Europe and leave without putting any further agreements in place. There would be no transition period and things would start to get a little messy. If international political organisations had Facebook, our relationship status would read ‘it’s complicated’.
It’s a very weird situation for all involved. No one wants it, both sides are threatening the other with the prospect of it, but neither can agree that it’s not going to happen. In fact, with just over a month to go before Brexit is no longer a hypothetical, no deal might actually be the safest bet of all. It’s like a really messy divorce. A few years of fruitless negotiations followed by a denial that either side owes the other anything before they both begrudgingly agree to split everything in half.
Possible cons of a no deal Brexit include border checks being reintroduced at the Irish border, huge implications for transport and trade, the return of data roaming, potentially needing a special licence to drive in Europe, and having genetically modified super chickens imported from the US.
As for pros, we have *checks notes*
A no deal is 4/1 with Betfred in the Brexit betting odds
This is all getting a bit too Noel Edmunds for my liking, but the second option for Brexit is Theresa May’s deal. In the preliminary stages, there was no consensus on what Britain wanted in an agreement with the EU. The Norway model was spoken about at great length, but this was too much like a diluted version of Brexit for some. Then we seemed to have endless discussions about whether we should have a hard Brexit or a soft one, it was all very confusing to be honest. Luckily our Prime Minister was there to clear things up, saying Britain needed a ‘red, white and blue Brexit’, making solid foundations for future discussions.
After months of hard negotiations, the Prime Minister finally delivered a deal that pleased absolutely nobody. It would see us follow all the same EU laws, but lose membership to the various institutions in the union. Essentially, we’d be tied by the same regulations, have to pay the estimated £39bn bill but lose all the benefits we currently have. Suddenly No Deal doesn’t seem so bad.
How likely is it that the deal will go through though? It has to be passed by MPs first, which is potentially a massive ask considering how divided opinion is on the matter. The one thing she does have in her favour is that many of those voting do not want a No Deal. In an ideal world, an amended version of the current proposal would be tabled. However, if it comes between the current deal and leaving without any form of plan, they might just have to concede defeat. Simples.
A withdrawal agreement to be reached is 1/9 with Betfair in the Brexit betting odds.
Remember that time before Brexit was a thing? When we all lived in an idyllic utopia, with no fighting or bickering, led by the steady hand of the Tory/Lib Dem coalition? Okay, maybe it wasn’t quite like that, but at least half the country didn’t hate the other half. Or maybe they did, it just wasn’t so overt. Anyway, if we were to renege on all the drama of the past couple of years and remain in the EU, we’d basically revert back to the way things were.
Now personally, I think this would be the best course of action. The negative effects of Brexit can be seen already and it’s not even been put into place yet. Honda and Nissan might claim they’re not leaving because of Brexit, but the sudden collapse of Britain’s automotive industry does seem a bit coincidental. However, there are those who believe that this would be an awful turn of events.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, a famed man of the people, is one of them. He believes that if Brexit were to be cancelled, there would be a vast increase in far-right extremism and people would take to the streets in protest. I’m not sure if he’s been paying attention recently, but at least one of those things is already happening. There’s also worries over whether Britain would be drafted into a European mega army, which almost sounds like the plot of Star Wars movie.
Of course, for Brexiters this is the worst possible outcome, but fortunately for them, it is an unlikely one as well. To cancel Brexit, we’d first have to have another referendum, something which hasn’t been put forward by any of the major parties. There’s plenty of support for one but there’s also a significant number of people who are strongly against this. Even if we were to get another referendum, Remain would have to win and this is by no means guaranteed.
A second referendum is 2/1 with 888 Sport in the Brexit betting odds
What’s Going to Happen?
I honestly don’t know. We’re two years down the Brexit pipeline and still none the wiser to what it’s going to look like. I’d like to think that no deal is a no go, but there’s a very real chance that it could happen.
I also have the feeling that remainers are going to be disappointed because I think we’re too far gone at this point. The hope is that we can get a good deal from Brexit, though I suspect the people at the top will settle for a bad one if it means the end of all this kerfuffle.
The one thing I would say is that, no matter what happens, it won’t be the end of the world. Politicians will continue to scream at each other in parliament, that 7am alarm will still go off every morning and life will go on. But hey, if you are genuinely concerned by the madness of Brexit, at least you can whack a cheeky bet on to make the whole thing feel a little less serious.
Find all your Brexit betting odds here
Cyrus has been writing about sports and many other topics for major publications over the past five years. Now working in digital marketing, he spends his days arguing over football and dreaming of his beloved Manchester City winning the champions league.